The NDIA’s participant numbers for Inner Gippsland track a similar course to those for Ovens Murray and Western District. With two quick quarters of above average volumes, starting at +34% and leaping to +173% above average in the first 6 months from October 2017.
Like Ovens Murray and Western District, the NDIA’s participant volumes for Inner Gippsland then head south the following quarter, though not to the same depths, reaching -44% below average volumes. Inner Gippsland’s numbers stay low for three quarters, take a quick trip up to the average volume in January-March 2019, then close the contract at -73% below average in the April-June 2019 quarter (Q12).
While our changes here are tracking the difference between the participant numbers given by the NDIA for each quarter compared to the average across all quarters from launch to close, this may actually hide the true extent of the challenge where there is large movements from one side of the zero line to the other. These quarter on quarter changes present the biggest challenges in operating effectively as a Local Area Coordinator.
The erratic changes in the NDIA’s participant volumes from quarter to quarter will challenge the successful Inner Gippsland LAC partner, particularly with the drop off from Q7 to Q8. By contrast, the relatively consistent 9 months of below average participant volumes from Q8 through Q10 may give a small period of consistent work.
The single quarter uptick in Q11 prior to the drop at the end of the contract adds an extra layer of complexity, requiring the LAC partner to increase capacity for three months before reducing again and potentially closing at the end of June 2019 (depending on whether the NDIA chooses to continue outsourcing Local Area Coordination).
This analysis is provided for CareNavigator.com.au by The Healthy Organisation