According to the NDIA’s Participant Numbers, Mackay booms early, starting 88% above its long run average and then jumping the next quarter to 183% above its long run average. After this Mackay crashes to zero participants (-100% from average) in the July-September quarter of 2017.
The NDIA’s numbers have Mackay recovering up to it’s long run average for the 6 months from January through to June in 2018, only to repeat the same July-September crash from the previous year. The Mackay numbers recover again and finish the contract in June 2019 at the long run average.
Starting significantly above the long run average will mean the successful LAC will have to build a much larger short term work force early than it needs over the long term. These staffing challenges will be exacerbated by the subsequent busts and an overall lack of stability.
LAC hopefuls are not able to condition their bids on the basis of winning multiple LAC regions. As such, managing this erratic cycle will likely be a headache for Mackay’s successful LAC bidder. Recruiting, training and developing enough quality staff to fully support the NDIA’s participant numbers in the first 6 months may be difficult given the seasonality of the work over the long term.
This analysis is provided for CareNavigator.com.au by The Healthy Organisation